Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria

MarketWatch-Spanish banking giant BBVA on Wednesday reported a 94% drop in fourth-quarter net profit, as it increased provisions for bad loans and took a write-down on the value of its U.S. businesses.

Best sentence:
"Profit in the period was also affected by negative impacts of hyperinflation in Venezuela."

Prescience from Bronte Capital

I really do not know. I am not close enough to the ground in Spain to know – and – frankly – analysing (supposedly) faked data in a language I can’t read from a desk in Australia is unusually difficult. But there seem to be four variants.

(a). The Spanish banks are telling the truth – and this is a storm in a teacup,

(b). The Spanish banks are doing a normal amount of bank over-optimism in the face of a crisis – and whilst the banks are really stretched (but not telling us) the banks are ultimately solvent – and the European experiment is fine,

(c). The Spanish banks are in fact diabolical – and the losses are maybe 15-20 percent of a year of Spanish GDP – in which case a bailout by (effectively) German taxpayers is possible or

(d). Variant Perception is in fact unreasonably bullish – and Spain will collapse economically and socially and we will be thankful if all we get back is someone like the Generalissimo. The modern European experiment will be deemed to fail because a single European Union with a single currency can’t hold together in a crisis because Germany won’t or can’t bail out Spain, Italy and Greece in a crisis.