Friday, June 11, 2010

China

"BTW, I just read that China is building a 350kph train line from Chongqing to Chengdu. That’s kind of mind-boggling when you consider the rough terrain. The track will be 66% tunnels and bridges. Does this make sense? My heart says yes but my brain says no.

When China becomes rich these project will pass a cost/benefit analysis. But they will be too expensive to build. NYC now wishes it had built a better subway system. But it is too late. Construction costs are now too high. China is building rail lines, subways and airports that are totally inappropriate for a country that is much poorer than Mexico. But they are highly appropriate for a country twice as rich as Mexico, which is where China will be in 30 years. I still lean toward the Huang perspective, because the argument I just made ignores the opportunity cost of capital invested in these projects, but I think the alternative view is also defensible."
-MoneyIllusion

No comments:

Post a Comment